AFLW FINALS WEEK 1 GAME ANALYSIS

We'll cover off the other 3 games today.

If you go back to last week I suggested that North have been ramping back up after a relative mid-season lull and may make a statement against the Blues and they did exactly that with a completely dominant display going +101 for disposals, + 59for kicks, +19 for inside 50's, +17% disposal efficiency, +98 uncontested possession, +11% time in possession and +39 for marks on the way to holding the Blues goalless until their only goal at the 18th minute mark of the 4th quarter and on top of that, North also won tackles by 20!

The Blues were a mess in the 2nd quarter as evident from first half stats of just 35% kicking efficiency and only 9 short kicks and not being able to get out of their defensive 50.

The uncontested possession count was their worse differential for the year, as well as the inside 50 count and opens the door for another high-pressure team to roll them in Hawthorn in week 2.

Up in Sydney the Swans got away to a flyer with a handy wind assist piling on 4 goals to 0 in the 1st quarter and the Dogs never really looked like it from then on. 

If you can score with the wind straight up then you essentially only have to play 3 quarters of real hard footy as you get the lead, hold them out when they have the win, extend the lead and then play the game out v 4 real hard quarters of footy for the team that doesn't have the wind and can't keep you scoring in the 1st quarter when you have it.

In this case, after applying 241 pressure in the 1st quarter the Dogs were already under fatigue in the 2nd quarter when they had their chance with the wind and although dominated clearance in the quarter (5-1 at one stage), the Swans had Chloe Molloy sitting loose to do as she pleased, not really having the need to score against the wind with such a good start and maintaining pressure at 234.

With the Swans only needing to play 1 more real hard quarter they somehow upped their pressure again, at s point sitting at a ridiculous 294 with a forward half pressure rating on 253 while turning the tide on clearances 9-2.

In the end it was pressure (game rating of 232 - their highest of the season) and a lot of Tanya Kennedy and Chloe Molloy.

For the Dogs they have extra-struggled since Fitzgerald went down and they simply don't have another player of her calibre to replace her with so it was scoring from clearance or bust since she went down, scoring just 67pts in the 3 games she missed.

The Dogs were +51 in disposals but most of that came from being +44 in handballs which came from the pressure they were under all game long and couldn't take full advantage of their 42-20 hit out advantage either with clearances being 28 apiece coupled with 2 goals from 36 inside 50's v 7 from 35 for the Swans.

The question can Kennedy hold Prespakis this week and can the Swans turn up the pressure again to give themselves a chance down at GMHBA?

Up on the Gold Coast the Suns' dream season came to an end to a rejuvenated Hawthorn who seem to have finally found their game for 2026.

After a pretty even 1st half, the Hawks decimated the Suns with a 5 goals to 2 second half.

The Hawks were happy to expand the ground on offense that opened gaps in the Suns team defense and penetrated right through it at speed - a season long issue for the Suns - to a dangerous forward line of McDonagh, Dupuy and Stockwell while upping their pressure where it sat at 257 to just 175 at 1 stage in the 3rd quarter.

Since round 8 the Hawks have a league-best tackling efficiency of just under 77% and went at 72% in the 3rd in this one v the Suns 36% + Hawthorn cut off Gold Coast handball receives (14 in the 3rd v 3rd in the comp over the season) and they're ability to score dried up (scores per inside 50 x 50% Hawks v 24% Suns) without that fast transition we've seen them use all season.

In the end the Hawks pressure was 241 - 179 with a +30 tackle count for the Hawks in the 2nd half after an even 1st half and it totally separated the game.

Over 2 videos, today we look at:

• North Going Inside Forward 50
• Roos Creating the Outnumber Advantage
• Zippy Not Stepping In 
• How to Combat a Loose Defensive Ruck
• Gold Coast at Center Bounce Clearance
• Suns Going Corridor
• Gold Coast on Kick Out

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AFLW FINALS GEELONG v MELBOURNE GAME ANALYSIS

As predicted, this was a banger, literally coming down to the last seconds of the game

The Dess had early control but did not convert then Geelong got the run on to be leading 50-22 13mins into the 3rd quarter in what looked like a game-winning lead.

From that point until 3/4 time, the Dees clawed back to 50-38 at 3/4 time and the game had changed and by the 9th minute of the 4th, they had recorded 7 of the last 8 clearances, 9 of the last 12 inside 50's and 4 of the last 5 games of the match.

By the end of the gamer the Dees booted 6 of the last 7 goals while winning clearance 11-4 and forward half disposals 84-30 on their way to 5.2 to 1.1 from open play and the win.

They also ended up +24 in contested possession and +9 for inside 50's.

The Cats defense has always been an issue (6th but played against 8 bottom 8 teams this season) where Essendon and Collingwood both scores 51 and 49pts against them respectively an both season high's.

The Cats move on to my injury-riddled Swans next Sat and the Dees get the winner of Carlton and Hawthorn.

Over 2 videos, today we look at:

• Melbourne Forward Press Defense Fail
• Parry Gets Out the Back
• Melbourne Ignore Ther Own Outnumber Advantage and Kick to an Outnumber Disadvantage
• Geelong Defenders Goal Side
• Parry Gets Goal Side...Again
• Geelong Humming in Forward 50
• Melbourne Winning Goal
• Dees Relax and Should Have Cost Them 

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AFLW ROUND 12 GAME ANALYSIS PART 2/2

 

Team-by-Team:

Eagles - a disastrous season got even worse with Ella Roberts now missing all of next season more than likely will bring in some experience and will have to challenge Painter to do the work and become a full time mid

Hawks - had a cushy last 4 games to the season that has them dialed in and will need to be travelling to the Gold Coast for an elimination final but what team shows up - North Melbourne Hawks or GWS Hawks?

Giants - should have won this but as has been the problem for years now, they can get close but rarely hold the opposition off winning 2 games by a total of 12 pts but also lost 6 games by a combined 51pts but can't afford to lose McCormick

Suns - won 8 more games than last season which is quite ridiculous over a 12-game season and will host an elimination final off the back of 3 x 18yr olds, 6 x 19yr olds, 3 x 20yr olds and 2 x 21yr olds and that doesn't even include Rowbottom and Single who are 23/24 respecitively 

Bombers - if they want to continue to play Gaylor as a mid then they need to search high and low for some leadership in defense and some punchy offense off half back to reach their dangerous forwards in Toogod and Gough, can they deploy their own Wales ruck as a spare in defense like the Hawks have but before anything comes making their W program attractive enough entice prospective coaches

Magpies - is only going to get worse for the Pies next year as you just won't be able to replace the quality and experience they look to lose in a single pre-season without a coach and a club review into their W programme going on and unless Ash Centa is the most loyal person in the world, I'm not sure how they impress her enough over the next 12 months to resign her but I hope I'm wrong

Crows - did lose a lot of experience from 2025 and replaced it with youth so it was going to be very hard to maintain ladder positioning but did find a couple in Bown and Douglas and now need their mid-tier to take the next step (Charlton, Rasheed, Gorman, Goodwin) 

Demons - if there's a positive to come out of a 12-game season where you don't play almost half the competition in a given season, it can deliver a 2v3 Qualifying Final from 2 teams who haven't played each other this season in what could be a contender for the best game ever, weather permitting 

Dockers - lost 4 games by a total of 29pts with the 7th worst offense but hopefully they get more aggressive with their ball movement when Tighe gets back to team up with Zanker or do they use Smith/Zanker forward and pair Tighe with Healey in defense?

Swans - have won the most games ever in a season for them (9) while losing 4 key talls to ACL injuries literally off the back of Chloe Molloy being unstoppable inside forward 50 (15 goals in the past 4 games) but the Swans lost another tall in Caitlin Reid on the weekend leaving them with only Smith, Ham, Quinn and Hamilton 179cms or taller which is somehow still more than the Bulldogs so it's smallball for both teams in this one

Today we look at:

• Centra Run
• Essendon Team Defense
• Collingwood on Transition Offense
• Fremantle on Transition Offense
• Sydney Going Inside Forward 50

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AFLW ROUND 12 GAME ANALYSIS PART 1/2

The home-and-away season and finished and its finals time!

They really need to go to the wildcard set up in AFLW which actually makes sense in a competition with just 12 games and not playing everyone once but that's a discussion for another day.

Cats - ended up scoring the most points ever in an AFLW home-and-away season with 871, just topping the best ever from North last year with 868 and set up a potential "best AFLW game ever" v the Dees this weekend

Bulldogs - have copped injuries at the worst time of the year, have lost home ground advantage in the finals and face the Swans at Henson Park in from of what could be 10,000 Sydney fans but win or lose, they should still be more than satisfied with 2026

Saints - desperately need a competitive ruck but the consensus first pick is a key forward in which they already have a surplus of in Wardlaw, McLay, Butterworth and Hobson so they draft for talent, or need, of which both are needed in spades? 

Power - Wanted: An Expansive Offensive Coach. Enquire Within. 

Tigers - really need a top-tier intercept mark defender who can kickstart rebound offense as well as take the big forwards from the opposition and they could also use an experienced kicker down there as well so I'm putting this out there - with McKenzie taking strides this year in the guts, could they move Conti to half back like Kearney did at North? Moreso do the Tigers have the courage to try it??   

Kangaroos - started great, had a relative lull, and now seem locked into to 3-peat and could make an example out of the Blues this weekend

Lions - have altered the game style a decent amount in the back end of this season but it still needs work as they still lost to 2 teams that finished below them, and only beat 1 team above them which isn't super when you finished 12th

Blues - don't quite seem to be as strong as last season but on their day can probably beat anyone but being 17th for clearances come finals time gives little room for error when the uncontested game gets taken away from you

Today we look at:

• Gee v Dogs Wings
• Richmond at Center Bounce Clearance
• North Melbourne Forward 50 Stoppage Goals x 2
• West Coast Forward Pres Defense Fail
• GWS Going Inside Forward 50

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ST KILDA v PORT ADELAIDE CENTER BOUNCE BATTLE GAME ANALYSIS (FREE)

 

A bit of different tact today looking exclusively at the center bounce battle in the St Kilda/Port Adelaide game.

Over the season the Matlida Scholz leads the league in total hit outs with 321 and is only behind by .1 in hit outs per game.

Port as a team is 4th in total clearances and 6th for average clearances per game.

Couple this with being 18th for uncontested possession, 18th for handballs and 13th for marks even with a very heavy kick bias, and it's clear the Power generate most of their scores from stoppage and clearance situations which lends itself to having such a dominance in hit outs.

The Saints on the other hand don't register until player 26 in hit outs, are 18th as a team and 16th for clearances so the Poser had a clear statistical advantage in this area going into the game.

If you've seen my videos throughout this AFLW season I have put a little focus on the Power at center bounce and have found the following trends:

• Most, if not all, center bounce taps are going to Abbey Dowrick whose 3rd in total clearances and 4th for center bounce clearances
• They have 2 go-to plays at center bounce being the big tap forward of the center circle or the back tap to a wrap around exit on the fat side of the center circle

Here's what those 2 center bounce plays look like:

Let's see what went down in this game off the back of what we now know.

The very first center bounce is usually a feeling out process so you for soemth9ing pretty safe and the set up dictates that as well.

Here the Power have a player set up as defensive sweeper and as the Saints have done the same thing, then both are very much on their own and Scholz with her major advantage opts to not tap to Dowrick, a rarity, and instead goes to Moloney but the Saints will live with that as it's a) Not to Dowrick and b) Not out the front of the stoppage

After a goal from center bounce clearance the Power are off and running and as the previous tap went to Moloney, who's now in a different position, the Saints are forced to pay her more attention than normal as she might be the go-to player again.

This keeps the St Kilda sweeper between her and Dowrick, but there's just enough space for a forward tap and clearance, albeit not a clean one initially. 

Another goal from center bounce for the Power and they go right back to the forward tap, with the Power player positioning right back off the contest to open up more space right in that forward tap zone area.

The Saints still seem to be scouting the back wrap move from Dowrick and is still giving her goal-side which is a gimme now with that Port player so far back off the contest and it's a simple push off and run.

At quarter time the Power led center bounce clearance 4-0 and had already generated 3 of their 4 scores from that source so the Saints need to do something and it's not miraculously winning hit outs which they lost 17-43 on the day, so it'll have to come from positioning.

A couple of moves from the Saints here:

1. Put your best mid (Smith) in the most dangerous spot (the forward tap spot)
2. Take goal side away from Dowrick

The Saints do both here and get a clean center clearance of their own.

The Power aren't using the back wrap that they use a lor of here making the tap zone predictable for the Saints (forward) and now the Saints can start taking advantage of it so straight out of half time Smith pushes Dowrick in and under the forward tap then uses her speed to get back to the ball.

The Saints are making a run after the fast start by the Power and Port add Hampson to the center bounce mix and give het the back wrap play - a first I've seen this yr for her - but the Saints have this scouted as well and Lmabert pushes her in and under the tap but Port still manage to win the clearance.

The lone advantage the Saints had at center clearance, and probably in most games, is when both back-up rucks go in there as Wardlaw has played a fair bit of ruck over her 8yr career which is usually resigned to a forward punch but the Saints could easily make this a temporary strength of theirs as she does win most of these taps convincingly.

Now we have Smith on the most dangerous Power mid (Dowrick) and in the most dangerous space (forward tap zone) and she plays it almost perfectly as she pushes Dowrick in and under the ball again, uses her speed to get back to the ball again, but can't quite break free.

The Saints really need another in and under mid so they could take Dowrick's body and then Smith could use her speed to be more offensive.

In the end the Saints couldn't hold on to this one but did make great in-game alterations that stopped the game getting out of control like it was earlier - something we saw zero of when Del Santo was still in charge - and after the 4-0 center clearance start in the 1st quarter, it went 6-5 Port's way after that which is far more manageable.

AFLW ROUND 11 GAME ANALYSIS PART 3/3

 

Team-by-team:

Kangaroos - a +10 for inside 50's gave the Roos field position dominance in this one that was just enough to overcome being down at half and 3 quarter time  

Crows - gave it to the Roos at contest but beaten by 38 in uncontested possession is the fine line in wet conditions 

Hawks - went scoreless in the 4th and were very lucky with some umpiring decision in the Essendon forward 50 but served to win this game

Bombers - put up a whopping 124 tackles in this game more than twice their season average (61.5) but ball movement and finishing (-13 for inside 50's) just stopped themselves short of a major upset

Blues - were outplayed in this one in my opinion but were far more efficient when they went forward and still managed to play a dry game style in very non-dry conditions  

Giants - went +8 for clearances and +2 for inside 50's but then would let the blues go to end to end and score

Today we look at:

• Gold Coast Going Back into Pressure
• Richmond Going Too Fast
• Suns Defensive Formation
• Tigers Going Back into Pressure
• Richmond Defense Too Loose
• Gold Coast at Center Bounce Clearance
• GWS Collapsing In at Contest
• Giants Defense
• Carlton Holding Space at Contest 

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AFLW GAME ANALYSIS ROUND 11 PART 2/3

 

Team-by-Team:

Suns - for the 5th best defense they sure are leaky as a team unit which comes from the mids possible getting too offensive all at the same time and they're winning games almost purely on offense but it's a great difference compared to teams trying to keep scores low deliberately to stay competitive

Tigers - were very plucky in this one and had great periods of forward half dominance but just couldn't finish with a score when they did and not a great time for Wolmarans to go goalless

Bulldogs - as great as the Dogs have looked this season they are still in the 2nd tier of teams and missed Fitzgerald A LOT as they just could not move the ball or maintain possession resulting inn just 21 inside 50's which doesn't give you enough chances to score, nor win, and will need to find a rebounding kicker if they're any chance against the Cats

Demons - the complete opposite for the Dees who went +42 for disposals, +54 uncontested possession, +18 for inside 50's, +6% time in possession and +21 in marks in a resounding win

Swans - a mature win to run away with this one with Eagles' season on the line and keeping them scoreless in the last quarter and once again dominated the tackle count going +30  

Eagles - were never really in the running this season and have actually lost to the Giants, Crows and Power which is not really top 8 team material and need an injection of fluid offense for 2027 

Over 2 videos, today we look at:

• Saints Not Driving Out of Contest
• St Kilda Outnumber Advantage Fail
• Saints Going Inside Forward 50 x 2
• St Kilda Giving the Extra Handball
• Saints Not Reaching On-Field Standards
• Dalgleish Small Forward Craft
• Sydney Forward 50 Stoppage Goal

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