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Tuesday, March 31, 2026

ROUND 3 GAME ANALYSIS - STK/BRIS + ESS/NM + CAR/MELB

                                 

The Lions are somewhat up against it after playing 23 games or more per season and going deep into finals for 5yrs now but it's come at the best time so I've no doubt they'll stay afloat during this injury-ridden time period and then be fine come the back end of the season.

The Saints season has not started like they wanted and although I'm not too up in arms about their off-season investments, they've already lost to 2 teams who are fighting for similar ladder positions come the season's end (Collingwood/Melbourne) + an undermanned Brisbane team at Marvel meaning they're going to have to win some major upsets going forward.

The less said about Essendon/North Melbourne/Carlton the better and I like the Demons this year but they're a play-in team at best although almost a must-watch team now with Kozzie Pickett about to have a NAS-type season.

Today we look at:

  • Brisbane Getting Length
  • Brisbane Multiple Options that Draws the Defense
  • Brisbane Hit Up Lead + Length
  • Essendon Outnumber Advantage Fail
  • Cripps Stoppage Goal
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Sunday, March 29, 2026

ROUND 3 GAME ANALYSIS - GEE/ADE + COLL/GWS


Not that anyone wants to be peaking in round 3 but there's a lot of teams with high expectations just getting by at the moment.

Geelong have been flogged by Gold Coast, had a huge come from behind victory over Freo and this past weekend just got over an offensive-allergic Adelaide but they're also blooding youngsters like O'Sullivan, Dempsey, Wiltshire, Neale, Edwards, Humphries, Bruhn and Clarke.

Adeliade have not got the memo for playing AFL footy in 2026, reaching scores of 93, 88 and 60 from an inside 50 count of -32 over the season. It's too slow and they're really missing Dan Curtin who can win 1v1's through the middle of the ground at 197cms but they need to really shift their philosophy around ball movement. For what it's worth I had them sliding this season anyway.

The Pies are boring at the moment but winning is winning and defense will keep you in almost every game you play but you need both sides cause they're not the come-from-behind types they used to be, no matter how much the TV commentators tell us they are. How they can defend teams like the Suns and Dogs to half their score while scoring above their own average remains to be seen.

GWS have been fighting the injury battle for months already and although I like their kids, they still are too thin through the midfield which can't be hidden with key defenders and forwards out of the team. If there's a great time for around 4 bye, then it's now for the Giants.

Today we look at:

  • Adeliade on Kick Out
  • Adeliade Outnumber Advantage Fail
  • Pendles Kick to Advantage
  • Collingwood High Defensive Press
  • Weird Nick Daicos Run
  • Pies Forward Press Defense
  • Colingwood at Center Bounce Clearance
  • Pies Teasong Distance
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Thursday, March 26, 2026

WHAT'S MISSING FROM THE HAMSTRING EPIDEMIC DISCUSSION?

                                            

Over the first 3 rounds, AFL footy has undertaken very noticeable changes in how the game isa currently being played.

Whether this will hold is not entirely clear but the rules have been altered to do so at some level and a good amount of player damage has already been done with an extremely high risk of secondary occurrences of hamstring injuries after the initial one - poor Callum Ah Chee is on his 3rd since Xmas already! (cue the image from Useless AFL Stats!)

The talk of the game dramatically speeding up, the early start to the season and players not having enough pre-season training time are all a big part of this discussion and will be part of the solution - if the AFL wants one.  

For a multi-faceted sport like Aussie Rules, it needs to be looked at through a multi-faceted lens.

I like to use the 4 co-actives of performance to do this:

  • Tactical
  • Physical
  • Technical
  • Psychological

Tactically, we can clearly see the shift in play with a lot less stoppages and more continuous play.

This tactical shift can have an effect on the physical co-active as with more high-speed running comes more fatigue - low/medium speed running won't really shift fatigue markers in elite athletes.

The next flow-on effect is to the technical co-active as with fatigue comes sub-optimal movement patterns and players can overreach from less-then-stella positions.

But what about the psychological co-active?

Why has this not been mentioned at all?

It's definitely a black hole in daily media reporting as it's not visible and cannot be tracked by Champion Data and alike.

Enter Cognitive Overload.

Cognitive Overload occurs when a players' working memory gets overflowed by information from the environment which occurs in high pressure situations with great consequences.

In 2026 the game is far more open with tackles, clearances, ruck contests, ball up/throw ins, repeat stoppages all down with disposals, meters gained, marks all up.

More open play = More information to process = Less time to decide and execute in

Less stops in play = Less in-game rest = More high-speed running under relative fatigue

Cognitive Overload is definitely playing a part in this as well and couple that with dual tasking (performing multiple tasks at once) and attention can be pulled in too many directions, adding to this cognitive overload even more.

The simplest way I can describe cognitive overload in terms is through practice games and/or round 1.

Practive games are the hardest games from a physical standpoint as it's usually your first bout of continuous contact and has far closer game-simulated running then any training game can have.

You can do all the running you want but it doesn't compare you for the contact and 3 - 4 decent tackles can take the stuffing right out of you. 

Round 1 is different all together and although you've had the contact in the practice games, what you haven't had is the extreme level of arousal and this another major component to cognitive overload and is why it seems you haven't even trained once 7 - 10mins into the 1st quarter of the 1st game.

Even AFL teams struggle with this as players are always saying practice games aren't even close to the real stuff, much like training game-sim isn't even close to the practice games.

There's a lot of focus on running loads and the like and I don't know if they do already but if they don't, then AFL teams should try looking at interaction load and how many at the ball, near the ball and far away from the ball decisions are made by players and try simulating that at training along with the running demands they already know about.

Soccer has some software around this sort of thing I believe, and I'd be surprised if something similar wasn't being used in the AFL to some degree.

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

WESTERN BULLDOGS TEAM DEFENSE


The Dogs had 1 weird season in 2025.

Despite scoring the most points in the league and the 8th best defense, they still couldn't make finals, going 2-9 against the other top 9 teams.

Unless you're a bottom 6 team playing the top 6 - 8 teams maybe 4 - 5 times a year, then not beating any of them won't allow you to ever make finals and you'll forever be stuck in the middle.

In 2025 they beat 3-borderline finals teams by 11pts or less (Carlton by 8, Sydney by 11, Melbourne by 6) while losing to 6 top 8 t4eams by 15pts or less (Colingwood by 6, Gold Coast by 14, Geelong by 14, Adelaide by 11, Brisbane by 10 and Fremantle by 15).

Going into 2026 it was all about what their defense would look like and can they beat the top teams.

After not bringing anyone in specifically to shore up the backline, it didn't look promising from the outset until we saw them in action.

It's not like they need to drastically do anything defensively as they were OK last year but they needed to find a way to be better against the better teams during transition defense.

So far in 2026 they're averaging only 5pts more than last year and allowing 3 more points against but have a 3-0 record and already having beat probable top 8 teams in Brisbane, GWS and Adelaide with 2 of those being away games.

They won 8 games by 72pts or more last year and with an improved defense I shudder to think what those scores will be in 2026! 

I made a quick 5min video detailing what the Bulldogs are doing which is nothing ground-breaking but it works for their playing group rather than the players having to fit the system and requires excellent discipline in spacing.

From a local football point of view, there are many times where you'll be outgunned in 1v1's in your forward 50 and something like this could help you tremendously such is its simplicity.

The main points are:

  • Pressure at the Source
  • Delay the Opposition
  • Crowd the Corridor
  • Stay Connected
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Tuesday, March 24, 2026

ROUND 1 GAME ANALYSIS - NM/PA + STK/MELB


I thought I posted this last week but hence, I was incorrect so here it is!

From these 2 games we look at:

  • Port Forward Not Reading the Game Cues
  • North Outnumber Advantage Fail
  • Saints Getting Width But Can't Fully Utilise the Corridor
  • St Kilda Forward 50 Throw In Goal
  • Melbourne at Center Bounce Clearance x 2

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Monday, March 23, 2026

ROUND 2 GAME ANALYSIS WEST COAST v NORTH MELBOURNE


North will be North won't they?

Given, potentially, the bottom 5 teams in their 1st 6 games, the AFL set them up to start with momentum and then see what they can do with it.

Losing on just the 2nd game to the Eagles certainly put a stop to that, at least for the time being. 

The Eagles have been slowly revving their game style up to that of Andrew McQualter and even though the results haven't been there, their KPI's to how they want to play definitely have.

Pressure, ground balls, forward surge and territory is their blueprint - taking a huge leap out of the Richmond playbook through their premiership years, and now it seems some of their draft picks seem to be coming along for the ride.

West Coast still might finish 2nd bottom this year, and they'll be better than their record actually suggests I reckon, but North must be very disappointed to allow a 60pt turnaround in this game - and so they should be.

The dominated hit outs 54 - 27 but only marginally won clearance 46 -37 and once it turned into a chaos game, then North will be North.

Today we look at:

  • North Kick Out Fail
  • North Not Even Looking to Go Forward
  • North Missing the Essy Open Options
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Sunday, March 22, 2026

ROUND 2 HAWTHORN v SYDNEY GAME ANALYSIS


She was a fast start to this one with an 11 goal 1st quarter with Sydney getting the game to look like they wanted it to, scoring 3.1 from turnover and another 3.0 from clearances (8-5).

After that though the Hawks made all the adjustments that mattered and just took it away from the Swans ending with +64 possessions, +43 marks and their back 6 having 46 intercept possessions showing out very poor efforts going forward.

Today we look at:

  • Hawks Not Pressing Forward Defensively
  • Sydney Inside 50 Boundary Throw In
  • Sydney Cutting Off Hawthorn Width
  • Sydney Outnumber Fail
  • Sydney Kick Out
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