ROUND 5 GAME ANALYSIS - ADE/CAR + COLL/FRE + HAW/WB

Same old story for the Blues which is a cannot-stop-watching trainwreck at the moment because no matter how good they are early, we know it'll fall apart later. 

The Crows really need this win to stay in touch with the top 8 (can't bring myself to say top 10 yet!) but they're anti-2026 brand of football just doesn't look like it's going to worry the big guns throughout the season but we'll see what difference Dan Curtain makes when he returns to pass full judgement.

The Pies and Dockers was an absolute snooze-fest! The weather wasn't super but other teams played in the same weather and easily surpassed the 24 total scoring shots these teams combined for. The Pies have the 2nd least total points for so far, only behind an anaemic Richmond with their 3rd best defense the only thing keeping them in games at the moment even with a favourable draw so far.

The Dockers are still trying to consolidate their run and gun game so a team like the Pies were always going to have them default back to slow ball movement but that's on the Dockers for going to conservative and might be a hindrance in the pressure cooker that is finals footy.

The Lions again puff the chest out for 5 - 8mins and get over the line while North actually showed more in this game then their wins but their under 10 skill errors still hold them back from making the huge strides their trying to make. 

The Hawks are the in-form team right now for mine after beating Sydney, Geelong and the Bulldogs 3 weeks in a row BUT all 3 of those teams were down in personnel through injury which does bring midfield depth back to even for the Hawks so let's see them against a top 5 midfield at full strength before restructuring the mortgage on them. 

Today we look at:

• Carlton Trying to Play 2026 Football
• Colingwood Forward Press Defense
• Colingwood Kick Out
• Brisbane Kick Out
• Brisbane Going Corridor x 2
• Hawks Width 

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SYDNEY v GOLD COAST GAME ANALYSIS

If you're a regular reader/watcher of my game analysis posts then you'll be well aware of the teams like Sydney, Gold Coast and Brisbane creating length through the center of the ground for to move the ball through the corridor whole getting your forwards deep inside forward 50 at the same time.

Leading up to the Sydney/Gold Coast game I posted about how both teams both want to this mid50 length from contest, who would be able to do it the best and will the dimensions of Norwood allow it to happen?

My locals’ R1 was last Fri so really looking fwd to Syd/GC who both love creating length through the m50 to run/hb chain to f50 with deep fwds (more vids in comments) - Who stops who? Does Norwood Oval allow this? Can’t wait!! #aflswanssuns #AFLSwansSuns pic.twitter.com/BMQfQUZzc9

— AFL Training (@AFLTraining) April 11, 2026

In the end the deciding factor was pressure and tackling.

Over 45 games so far this year, 15 have had a +10 tackle differential with 8 of those having a +20 tackle diff.

Only 1 of those 8 games has had a +30 or more tackle differential and it was this very game, where Sydney were +45 in tackles with an almost 2:1 tackle ratio (97-52).

Post-game the Swans' players said this was a focus which I presume was based on the ground dimensions (narrowest ground in the AFL) = less ground to cover per defender = more congestion = high pressure/tackle which also helped the Swans limit the Suns to 0 contested marks for the entire game.

On top of that the Suns had 13/14 lowest rated players on the ground v Sydney having 7/8 highest rated and to get back to the tackle factor, Gold Coast had 19 players with 3 or less tackles for the game v Sydney with 7/8 highest tacklers for the game. 

Cox thoroughly outcoached Dimma in this game.

This video is sorted into 2 parts:

• The first 12mins looks at both teams creating m50 length from center bounce clearance, general play stoppage and kick outs
• The last 3 mins looks at Rowell losing Heeney, Sydney Forward Press Defense and Grundy Ruck Run

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WESTERN BULLDOGS/ESSENDON + HAWTHORN/GEELONG GAME ANALYSIS

The Dogs could have made an awful mess of the Bombers but a late scratching for Richards and a 2nd quarter injury to English allowed an Essendon comeback of sorts for an 8-2 goal 2nd half to the Bombers.

Nothing to worry about for the Dogs who were probably looking ahead with Hawthorn this week and if Essendon want to be taken seriously then they need to be able to hang with teams when they're not in 2nd gear.

The Hawks are winning like last year but you just feel they're a rung below the other top teams and it seems like the Cats might be as well this year but both teams fielded a lot of 1st and 2nd year players so a little dip before another rise is probably on the cards for both.

Today we look at:

• Dogs Team Transition Defense
• Essendon Outnumber Advantage Fail
• Wizard Forward 50 Stoppage Goal
• Geelong Length
• Hawthorn Corridor Width
• Hawks at Center Bounce Clearance

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WEST COAST v SYDNEY GAME ANALYSIS

I expected a touch more from the Eagles in this one winning 2 games in arow and on their home deck but just shows the chasm between the top and bottom teams at the moment but that's not a change from any year we've had up until now.

The forward handball game from the Swans at the moment is going a ridiculously high level, with total meters gained for the match being 6,648 v 5009 Sydney's way.

Although we took far too long to embrace the handball game even with players perfectly suited to it, it's good to see us use it now when it can be fully taken advantage of with the new/old stand rule.

The Eagles have a clear game style which is hard to say for a lot of other younger teams so they'll be alright but until the kids can play at 100% intensity for 100% of the game, they'll still get opened up like this from time-to-time but they're on the right track.

Today we look at:

• Sydney at Center Bounce Clearance x 4
• Heeney Inside Forward 50
• Sydney at Forward 50 Stoppage
• Syndey Handball Receives

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BRISBANE v COLLINGWOOD GAME ANALYSIS

 Today we look at:

• Collingwood Team Defense
• Morris Leading Patterns
• Collingwood at Center Bounce Clearance
• Brisbane Taking Collingwood's Eyes
• Brisbane Forward Press Defense
• Schultz Ball Watching

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ROUND 3 GAME ANALYSIS - STK/BRIS + ESS/NM + CAR/MELB

                                 

The Lions are somewhat up against it after playing 23 games or more per season and going deep into finals for 5yrs now but it's come at the best time so I've no doubt they'll stay afloat during this injury-ridden time period and then be fine come the back end of the season.

The Saints season has not started like they wanted and although I'm not too up in arms about their off-season investments, they've already lost to 2 teams who are fighting for similar ladder positions come the season's end (Collingwood/Melbourne) + an undermanned Brisbane team at Marvel meaning they're going to have to win some major upsets going forward.

The less said about Essendon/North Melbourne/Carlton the better and I like the Demons this year but they're a play-in team at best although almost a must-watch team now with Kozzie Pickett about to have a NAS-type season.

Today we look at:

• Brisbane Getting Length
• Brisbane Multiple Options that Draws the Defense
• Brisbane Hit Up Lead + Length
• Essendon Outnumber Advantage Fail
• Cripps Stoppage Goal

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ROUND 3 GAME ANALYSIS - GEE/ADE + COLL/GWS

Not that anyone wants to be peaking in round 3 but there's a lot of teams with high expectations just getting by at the moment.

Geelong have been flogged by Gold Coast, had a huge come from behind victory over Freo and this past weekend just got over an offensive-allergic Adelaide but they're also blooding youngsters like O'Sullivan, Dempsey, Wiltshire, Neale, Edwards, Humphries, Bruhn and Clarke.

Adeliade have not got the memo for playing AFL footy in 2026, reaching scores of 93, 88 and 60 from an inside 50 count of -32 over the season. It's too slow and they're really missing Dan Curtin who can win 1v1's through the middle of the ground at 197cms but they need to really shift their philosophy around ball movement. For what it's worth I had them sliding this season anyway.

The Pies are boring at the moment but winning is winning and defense will keep you in almost every game you play but you need both sides cause they're not the come-from-behind types they used to be, no matter how much the TV commentators tell us they are. How they can defend teams like the Suns and Dogs to half their score while scoring above their own average remains to be seen.

GWS have been fighting the injury battle for months already and although I like their kids, they still are too thin through the midfield which can't be hidden with key defenders and forwards out of the team. If there's a great time for around 4 bye, then it's now for the Giants.

Today we look at:

• Adeliade on Kick Out
• Adeliade Outnumber Advantage Fail
• Pendles Kick to Advantage
• Collingwood High Defensive Press
• Weird Nick Daicos Run
• Pies Forward Press Defense
• Colingwood at Center Bounce Clearance
• Pies Teasong Distance

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