A bit of different tact today looking exclusively at the center bounce battle in the St Kilda/Port Adelaide game.
Over the season the Matlida Scholz leads the league in total hit outs with 321 and is only behind by .1 in hit outs per game.
Port as a team is 4th in total clearances and 6th for average clearances per game.
Couple this with being 18th for uncontested possession, 18th for handballs and 13th for marks even with a very heavy kick bias, and it's clear the Power generate most of their scores from stoppage and clearance situations which lends itself to having such a dominance in hit outs.
The Saints on the other hand don't register until player 26 in hit outs, are 18th as a team and 16th for clearances so the Poser had a clear statistical advantage in this area going into the game.
If you've seen my videos throughout this AFLW season I have put a little focus on the Power at center bounce and have found the following trends:
- Most, if not all, center bounce taps are going to Abbey Dowrick whose 3rd in total clearances and 4th for center bounce clearances
- They have 2 go-to plays at center bounce being the big tap forward of the center circle or the back tap to a wrap around exit on the fat side of the center circle
Here's what those 2 center bounce plays look like:
Let's see what went down in this game off the back of what we now know.
The very first center bounce is usually a feeling out process so you for soemth9ing pretty safe and the set up dictates that as well.
Here the Power have a player set up as defensive sweeper and as the Saints have done the same thing, then both are very much on their own and Scholz with her major advantage opts to not tap to Dowrick, a rarity, and instead goes to Moloney but the Saints will live with that as it's a) Not to Dowrick and b) Not out the front of the stoppage
After a goal from center bounce clearance the Power are off and running and as the previous tap went to Moloney, who's now in a different position, the Saints are forced to pay her more attention than normal as she might be the go-to player again.
This keeps the St Kilda sweeper between her and Dowrick, but there's just enough space for a forward tap and clearance, albeit not a clean one initially.
Another goal from center bounce for the Power and they go right back to the forward tap, with the Power player positioning right back off the contest to open up more space right in that forward tap zone area.
The Saints still seem to be scouting the back wrap move from Dowrick and is still giving her goal-side which is a gimme now with that Port player so far back off the contest and it's a simple push off and run.
At quarter time the Power led center bounce clearance 4-0 and had already generated 3 of their 4 scores from that source so the Saints need to do something and it's not miraculously winning hit outs which they lost 17-43 on the day, so it'll have to come from positioning.
A couple of moves from the Saints here:
- Put your best mid (Smith) in the most dangerous spot (the forward tap spot)
- Take goal side away from Dowrick
The Saints do both here and get a clean center clearance of their own.
The Power aren't using the back wrap that they use a lor of here making the tap zone predictable for the Saints (forward) and now the Saints can start taking advantage of it so straight out of half time Smith pushes Dowrick in and under the forward tap then uses her speed to get back to the ball.
The Saints are making a run after the fast start by the Power and Port add Hampson to the center bounce mix and give het the back wrap play - a first I've seen this yr for her - but the Saints have this scouted as well and Lmabert pushes her in and under the tap but Port still manage to win the clearance.
The lone advantage the Saints had at center clearance, and probably in most games, is when both back-up rucks go in there as Wardlaw has played a fair bit of ruck over her 8yr career which is usually resigned to a forward punch but the Saints could easily make this a temporary strength of theirs as she does win most of these taps convincingly.
Now we have Smith on the most dangerous Power mid (Dowrick) and in the most dangerous space (forward tap zone) and she plays it almost perfectly as she pushes Dowrick in and under the ball again, uses her speed to get back to the ball again, but can't quite break free.
The Saints really need another in and under mid so they could take Dowrick's body and then Smith could use her speed to be more offensive.
In the end the Saints couldn't hold on to this one but did make great in-game alterations that stopped the game getting out of control like it was earlier - something we saw zero of when Del Santo was still in charge - and after the 4-0 center clearance start in the 1st quarter, it went 6-5 Port's way after that which is far more manageable.
